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The Blue Jays offense is going to flex on Matt Harvey again, plus other best bets for Wednesday

Like many of you, I watched the first game of the NBA Finals last night. Phoenix won rather easily, so there wasn’t any drama at the end of the game, but I couldn’t turn it off. Why? Because all Suns fans look insane.

Seriously, every shot of the crowd in Phoenix was amazing, and it wasn’t because ESPN was using that super high-definition camera (that thing has jumped the shark, by the way, but I’ll save that for another day.) There are always crazy-looking fans in every stadium, but they’re usually sprinkled in between a bunch of people wearing polos with khakis or T-shirts.

Not Suns fans. Every Phoenix fan is turned up to 11 when it comes to their appearance, and I am simultaneously in love with them and terrified of them. I don’t know how the rest of this series will go, but I think that will be my biggest takeaway from it.

OK, let’s make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Blue Jays at Orioles, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-130)
: In this newsletter we fade Matt Harvey! Of course, just because we fade Matt Harvey doesn’t mean we do it indiscriminately. There’s not much value on the Blue Jays on the money line, and more can be found on the spread. And that’s fine with me. Harvey has faced this Blue Jays lineup twice in the last three weeks, and he allowed seven runs and 15 hits in 10 innings.

Toronto continues to have one of the best offenses in baseball, and I’d expect it to rake against Harvey once again. What worries me a bit is that Hyun-Jin Ryu is starting for the Blue Jays tonight, and while he was a marquee offseason addition and got off to a fantastic start, he hasn’t been great lately. Ryu has allowed eight earned runs over his last two starts, including four against this Baltimore team. Of course, even when Ryu allowed four runs against Baltimore, he was backed by 12 runs from his offense.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a similar game tonight, nor would I be shocked to see Ryu return to his early-season form. After all, his track record of success is almost as long as Harvey’s track record of being a batting practice pitcher.

Key Trend: Baltimore’s 10 losses in Matt Harvey starts this season have come by an average of 4.8 runs per game.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model has an A-graded play on the money line tonight, but is it on the same side I am?


💰 The Picks


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⚾ MLB

Phillies at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) — 
On Monday, I told you to take the over in the Cubs-Phillies game because of the weather conditions, and while we had to wait longer than anticipated for the runs to show up, the over hit easily as the Phillies won 13-2. I didn’t write yesterday’s newsletter (thanks for filling in, Sam), but if I had, I’d have told you to take the over again because the weather conditions were the same. The result was a 15-10 Phillies win.

And now, in a great example of how different Wrigley Field plays based on time of day and weather, I’m telling you to take the under. Yep, tonight should look a lot different at the Friendly Confines. Instead of temps in the upper 80s and the wind blowing out, we’ll have temperatures in the lower-70s and the wind blowing in from left. That will dramatically impact the way the ball carries, and it’s going to be a lot more difficult to visit the bleachers tonight.

Key Trend: The under is 18-7-1 in the Cubs last 26 games as an underdog.

⚽ MLS

LAFC at Austin FC, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: LAFC (+130) — 
I could be wrong, but I believe this is MLS’ newsletter debut, so congratulations to the league. You’re officially a major American sport now. Years from now, we’ll all be telling our grandchildren about where we were the moment we saw an MLS game in the CBS Sports HQ PM newsletter.

Anyway, I’ve found some value in MLS in recent weeks. A lot of teams are missing key players who are either over in Europe for the Euros or in Brazil for Copa America, and it’s led to some wonky lines. This is one of them. I love a lot about Austin. Seriously, I love the team’s crest so much that I bought an Austin FC hat, and it’s probably my favorite hat right now. That’s something that should be taken seriously. Still, that hat doesn’t mean LAFC shouldn’t be a heavier favorite in this matchup than it is at this price. Honestly, I’d be taking LAFC at +110, so if I can get it at +130, I’m jumping all over it.

Key Trend: LAFC have scored in 10 of their 11 matches this season, and beat Austin 2-0 earlier this year.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Zack Cimini has gone 27-14 in his last 41 money line plays involving the Los Angeles Angels, and he’s on one side of the money line in tonight’s Angels game against Boston.


💸 The DFS Rundown


USATSI

Top Three Starters

Value Starter

Today’s Top Stack

Value Hitter


🏒 Stanley Cup Parlayoffs


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Our parlay tonight pays out at +151.

  • Lightning (-225)
  • Over 5 (-125)




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