2021 NBA Playoffs: Suns vs. Clippers odds, line, picks, Game 5 predictions from simulation on 100-66 roll

The Phoenix Suns host the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 5 of the 2021 Western Conference finals on Monday. The Suns lead the best-of-seven series by a 3-1 margin after a close-fought win on Saturday evening. As such, the Clippers must win to avoid elimination, with the Clippers aiming to clinch a berth in the 2021 NBA finals with a win at home. Kawhi Leonard (knee) remains out for the Clippers.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Phoenix. William Hill Sportsbook lists Phoenix as a 5.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214.5 in the latest Clippers vs. Suns odds. Before making any Suns vs. Clippers picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has locked in its Clippers vs. Suns picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Suns vs. Clippers:

  • Clippers vs. Suns spread: Suns -5.5
  • Clippers vs. Suns over-under: 214.5 points
  • Clippers vs. Suns money line: Suns -220, Clippers +190
  • LAC: The Clippers are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • PHX: The Suns are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Why the Clippers can cover

The Clippers are usually an offense-first team, but they have been excellent defensively against the Suns. Phoenix is posting only a 49.5 percent effective field-goal shooting clip in the first four games, with the Suns also producing a very low free-throw rate (0.176) to this point in the series. The Clippers are excellent in free-throw prevention, ranking top three in the NBA Playoffs 2021, and they are also No. 1 in the NBA in limiting fast-break points (6.8 per game) for their opponents. The Clippers aren’t big, but they are holding the opposition to just 40.5 points in the paint per game in the postseason, and they can attack the rim in their own right. 

The Clippers are a top-five team in free-throw creation in the playoffs, and they are also regulating their turnovers, giving the ball away on only 11.5 percent of their offensive possessions. Los Angeles isn’t scoring at quite the same level without Leonard, but Paul George is averaging 27.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists against the Suns, with Reggie Jackson adding 21.5 points per game. Los Angeles can also take solace in its league-leading shooting from beyond the arc, making more than 41 percent of its long range attempts during the regular season. 

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix has been tremendous defensively in the postseason, and that reached its apex in giving up only 80 points to the Clippers in Game 4. The Suns are holding opponents to just 105.5 points per 100 possessions, an elite figure, and the Clippers are scoring just 107.8 points per 100 possessions in the series. Phoenix leads the entire NBA Playoffs in holding opponents to a 49.0 percent effective field-goal shooting clip, and the Suns are allowing just 9.8 second-chance points and 7.0 fast-break points per game to the Clippers. 

Beyond that, Phoenix is yielding just 35.0 points per game in the paint to Los Angeles, making it difficult for the Clippers to maintain efficiency. On the offensive side, the Suns lead the playoffs with a 61.2 percent assist rate, and they are generating 2.32 assists for every turnover in the series. With Devin Booker averaging 27.1 points per game in the playoffs and Deandre Ayton dominating this series with 20.3 points and 13.5 rebounds per game, the Suns are set up to take advantage of the Clippers on both ends.

How to make Suns vs. Clippers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Clippers vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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