2021 NBA Finals: Suns vs. Bucks odds, line, picks, Game 1 predictions from proven model on 100-66 roll

Only two teams remain in the quest for the 2021 NBA championship and they will begin a best-of-seven brawl on Tuesday evening. The Phoenix Suns host the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 of the 2021 NBA Finals, with both teams needing six games in the conference finals to advance. Phoenix toppled the Los Angeles Clippers, while Milwaukee defeated the Atlanta Hawks. Milwaukee could be without two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee), as he missed the final two games against the Hawks and faces a doubtful distinction for Game 1.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Phoenix. William Hill Sportsbook lists Phoenix as a six-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 218.5 in the latest Suns vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. Suns picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the 2021 NBA Finals on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has locked in its Suns vs. Bucks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Bucks vs. Suns:

  • Bucks vs. Suns spread: Suns -6
  • Bucks vs. Suns over-under: 218.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Suns money line: Suns -250, Bucks +210
  • MIL: The Bucks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • PHX: The Suns are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee’s offense has stalled at times in the 2021 NBA Playoffs, but there are some reasons for optimism. First, the Bucks have dominated the offensive glass in recent games, leading to a bevy of second-chance opportunities. Milwaukee is gifted with physicality and length, and that has led to a 30.8 percent offensive rebound rate in the postseason. That peaked with a 33.9 percent clip against Atlanta, and the Bucks are the bigger team against the Suns. The Bucks were also a top-five offense in the NBA during the regular season, scoring 116.5 points per 100 possessions. 

They are likely due for positive shooting regression after making only 31 percent of their 3-pointers in the playoffs after shooting nearly 39 percent from beyond the arc during the 2020-21 season. The Suns also don’t have a perfect answer for Khris Middleton, who put the Bucks on his back on multiple occasions during the Hawks series and averaged 23.4 points per contest in the first three rounds. Finally, the Bucks could get to the free-throw line with frequency in this series, as the Suns have been below-average in preventing free-throw attempts to this point in the playoffs.

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix is tremendous on both ends of the floor, and that has been on display during the playoffs. The Suns finished as a top-seven unit in both offensive and defensive efficiency during the 72-game regular season, and they’ve been even better in the aggregate under the bright lights. Defensively, Phoenix is yielding fewer than 1.07 points per possession in the playoffs, ranking No. 2 in the league, and they lead the NBA in effective field-goal percentage allowed (48.9 percent). Opponents are shooting just 32.6 percent from 3-point range against the Suns, and the Bucks have struggled to just a 31.3 percent clip from long range in the playoffs.

On the offensive side, Devin Booker is averaging 27.0 points per game in the postseason and the Suns are scoring at an above-average clip on a per-possession basis. Monty Williams’ team is a top-two group in free-throw shooting (86.2 percent) and field-goal shooting (47.8 percent), with a stellar 58.3 percent true shooting mark in the playoffs. Finally, the Suns share the ball beautifully, assisting on more than 60 percent of their baskets and turning the ball over on a meager 12 percent of their offensive trips.

How to make Bucks vs. Suns picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 223 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who Bucks vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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